The race for Governor shows a heavier advantage for Gavin Newson this week, with an 8-point swing in his direction when you include leaners. With leaners, Newsom now surpasses the 50% threshold.
Gavin Newsom: 53%
John Cox: 42%
Editorial from Strategist John Thomas: John Cox’s honeymoon period is over. Last week’s results showed the race for Governor tightening likely due to the fact that Cox had the paid airwaves all to himself for several weeks allowing voters to hear his message without an alternative rebuttal. Newsom began his paid television advertising effort last Thursday and it is clearly making an impact statewide. As voters begin to dial into this race Newsom takes a decided lead cracking the critical 50% threshold. At this point in the race Newsom has resources to mount a significant statewide advertising campaign while Cox is significantly underfunded. Without resources at near parity we expect Newsom’s advantage to hold. Cox’s advantage with No Party Preference voters has been erased this week with Newsom taking the lead with that critical group.
Cox is managing to eclipse President Trump’s approval rating of 38.3%.
With such a small Unsure percentage up for grabs Cox is running into a math problem. Winning with the undecided voters is not enough to overcome his ballot deficit. He must claw Newsom back while building a robust positive profile for himself.