Prop 6 - Gas Tax Repeal
The No side of Prop 6 regains the lead beyond the margin of error this week with 42.3% to the Yes side’s 35.9%. The growth is attributable to a shift in 7% of the undecideds breaking against the repeal efforts.
Margin of Error: +/- 3%
Editorial from Strategist John Thomas: This week the Yes side was dealt a significant blow as we began to see where the unsure voters are breaking. The No side changed their tv ad creative per our suggestion in last week’s memo to have slightly more effective messenges. In a low information race with a misleading ballot title it appears that the undecideds break against repeal. The answer as to WHY is hard to definitively answer as we don’t have a traditional survey with multiple follow-up questions – open ended (why are you voting, what have you heard) fav/unfav checks. All we have to go by are trend lines and movement in subgroups. Regardless, the path for Yes is getting more and more narrow by the day.
If the undecideds continue to disproportionately break in favor of No by our final track next week we’ll have a clear indication that the repeal effort is doomed.