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Trafford
Housing Bulletin
Q1 2021/22
Welcome to the Trafford Housing Bulletin, Q1 2021/22. The following indicators will be included within the bulletin:
Contents:
Figure 1 shows the average house price in all boroughs within Greater Manchester (GM) in quarter 1 2021/22. It shows that housing in Trafford continues to be in high demand, stimulating a buoyant local housing market.  The value of residential property in Trafford continues to be the highest in GM. This demand is led by families seeking access to high achieving local schools and people looking to easily access the major leisure facilities in Trafford, as well as Manchester City Centre and the universities.
 
 
Table 1 shows the average sale price of different types of residential property across the ten Local Authority areas of GM.  Trafford properties continue to hold the highest value across all housing categories when compared to the rest of the borough.
 

Figure 2 shows house values in Trafford from March 2017/18 to March 2021/22. House values in the borough have decreased slightly between March 2020/21 and March 2021/22, which is likely the result of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is anticipated house values will again increase when the next update is available in March 2022/23.

Figure 3 shows that, as of June 2021, the annual average house price in Trafford has increased by 9.02%, which is the smallest percentage increase change across Greater Manchester. House prices in Manchester and Tameside have seen the greatest percentage increase change.
 

 
Figure 4 shows that there has been a decrease in the number of house sales in Trafford from 2019/20 to 2020/21. This is likely the result of the temporary shutdown of the housing market in 2020 due to Covid-19. The next update on this figure will be April 2022, when it is anticipated that sale volumes will increase.

Figure 5 shows the average rents of private properties in Trafford, by bedroom size, when compared to GM rents overall. As demonstrated, rents for all size private properties in Trafford are higher than the GM average, with the average rental price of a 4-bedroom property in Trafford being almost double that of the GM average.

Figure 6 shows the average monthly rent of private properties in Trafford by sub area and bedroom size. As demonstrated, private rents for 3 and 4-bedroom properties are considerably higher in the Rural Communities compared to the rest of Trafford.

Local Housing Allowance (LHA) is used to work out how much Housing Benefit or Universal Credit Housing Element a claimant can receive if they rent from a private landlord.  The LHA rate is set by calculating the number of bedrooms a tenant can claim for under government rules.

The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) sets the LHA rate for all areas. Trafford LHA rates fall into two geographical areas – Central GM BRMA which covers the North Trafford area (Stretford, Urmston, and Flixton) and Southern GM BRMA which covers the South Trafford area (Sale, Partington, Carrington, Altrincham, and Hale). LHA rates across the country were increased in April 2020 in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, but this measure was removed in April 2021 following the government Spending Review.

Trafford’s LHA allowances (as of July 2021) per month, to the nearest pound, are:

Figures 7 and 8 show the LHA rate compared to average rent prices in the private sector in both LHA geographical areas. The data shows the large disparity between Housing Benefit/Housing Element and private rents in Trafford.

Figures 7 and 8 highlight that Trafford’s private rented properties are largely inaccessible for those in receipt of welfare benefits as the LHA rates are significantly less than the average monthly rents in all areas.

Empty Properties:

Figure 9 shows that the number of empty properties in Trafford has gradually increased since 2017. The figures are reported in calendar year from 1st January to 31st December and published annually in March. The next update will be available in March 2022.

Figure 10 shows the number of properties classed as long term empty (vacant for over 6 months). Between 2019 and 2020, the number of long-term empty properties in Trafford decreased slightly for the first time since 2015. The figures are reported in calendar year from 1st January to 31st December, and are published annually in March. The next update will be available in March 2022.
 

Repossessions:

Mortgage Repossessions
Figure 11 shows the number of eviction warrants granted in cases of mortgage repossessions in both GM and Trafford since 2003. The sharp reduction in warrants granted in 2020 is likely the result of the FCS instructing firms not to enforce repossession due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This restriction remained in place until 1st April 2021. The data is reported in calendar year and shows to the end of December 2020; the next update will be available in January 2022.

 
Figure 12 shows what percentage of all GM mortgage eviction warrants were granted in Trafford. This data is reported in calendar year so Q2 includes warrants granted between April and June. 153 warrants were granted in GM in Q2, and 3 of those were against Trafford homeowners. It is expected that this figure will continue to increase following the lifting of the government’s ban on evictions.
 

 
Private and Social Rented Repossessions
Obtaining an eviction warrant is the final stage of the repossession procedure for landlords (social and private) to evict their tenants. Figure 13 shows the number of eviction warrants granted in both GM and Trafford since 2013. The data is published by calendar year and shows up to December 2020. The dramatic decrease in eviction warrants being granted in 2020 is the result of the government’s stay on possession proceedings from 27th March 2020 until 21st September 2020, and the ban on evictions which was in place until 31st May 2021. These measures were introduced in an effort to protect renters during the Covid-19 pandemic.
 

Figure 14 shows the number of eviction warrants granted to social and private landlords within Trafford, by quarter, since 2015. The data is published per calendar year and shows to the end of June 2021. As demonstrated, the reduction in warrants has continued into 2021 as a result of the measures introduced by the government in March 2020 to protect renters during the pandemic. It is expected that the number of warrants granted will increase significantly in the coming Quarters as the eviction ban was lifted on 31st May 2021.

Figure 15 shows the number of eviction warrants granted in Trafford, per year, split by landlord type. It demonstrates that consistently each year, the majority of eviction warrants are obtained by social landlords in Trafford. This may be due to Trafford only having a small prevalence of private rented properties, with the majority of properties within the borough being either owner-occupied or rented from social landlords.

Housing Affordability:

Figure 16 shows that house prices for residential property in Trafford were almost 9 times the average salary in 2020 (average gross salary is £36,500 in Trafford). Since most lending institutions will traditionally lend up to four and a half times the household annual salary (for the purpose of buying a house with a mortgage) this would mean that a household would need to have a yearly income of at least £73,000 to purchase a property in Trafford.

The ratio is produced by dividing the house prices in Trafford by the average earnings of the area. This indicator is reported annually and published in March each year. The next update will be available in March 2022.

 

New House Building:

Figure 17 shows the number of residential dwellings constructed by private developers and housing associations in Trafford compared to in GM overall. The figures are reported in calendar year from 1st January to 31st December and published annually in March. The next update will be available in March 2022.

It should be noted that this data is taken from the gov.uk statistical data set ‘live tables on housing supply: indicators of new supply’, which only includes new builds.  Trafford Council keep their own record of all completed dwellings which indicates a total of 1308 additional dwellings were completed in 2020.

Affordable House Building:

Figure 18 shows the number of additional affordable housing units constructed in 2018/19 and 2019/20 in each borough within GM. In total, Trafford has developed 194 affordable units over this timeframe. The figures are reported in calendar year from 1st January to 31st December. The next update will be available in December 2021.

Figure 19 shows the percentage change from 2018/19 and 2019/20 with regards to the number of additional affordable housing units in England, GM, and all boroughs within GM. In Trafford there was a 17% decrease of affordable housing. The greatest percentage change was in Oldham with a 275.6% increase. The figures are reported in calendar year from 1st January to 31st December. The next update will be available in December 2021.

Social Housing Demand:

At the end of Quarter 1 (30th June 2021) there were 5,057 applicants on Trafford Council’s Housing Register. Once registered for social housing, applicants are placed into different priority bands depending on their housing need. Applicants in Band 1 are deemed to be in the highest need for social housing. Figure 20 shows the breakdown of total applicants by priority band. Almost half (46%) of all applicants are in Band 4, which accounts for those who are eligible to join the housing register but do not have any identified housing need.

Bandings Definitions

Band 1: Urgent need to move and owed Reasonable Preference
Band 2: Need to move and owed Reasonable Preference
Band 3: Owed Reasonable Preference but do not meet criteria for Bands 1 & 2
Band 4: No housing need but meets meet the Trafford Positive Community Criteria
Band 5: Reduced preference due to rent arrears, behaviour, no local connection, has savings, equity or earnings above agreed thresholds

Figure 21 shows the number of bedrooms required to fulfil all applicants’ housing need requirements. The data shows that the majority of applicants on Trafford's housing register require a 1-bedroom (54%) or 2-bedroom (28%) property.

Homelessness Monitoring Data:

Housing Options Service Trafford (HOST) provides a range of services to households in need of housing advice or homelessness assistance. Some enquiries are resolved with advice only, while others require more intensive support and ongoing casework.

Figure 22 shows the total number of people who approached HOST for advice and assistance, by quarter, from 2018. Data from pre-2018 is not available as it was recorded in a different format. As demonstrated, the number of people approaching HOST deceased slightly between Q4 2020/21 and Q1 2021/22 but still remains significantly higher than previous years. These figures do not include enquiries made to HOST via email of which 4,931 were received in Q1 2021/22.

Figure 23 shows the breakdown of the approaches to HOST in Q1 2021/22 by whether the individual required advice only or ongoing casework. As demonstrated, the majority of clients required ongoing casework/assistance from HOST, which suggests the housing difficulties they faced were more complex than in previous Quarters. This could be a result of the lifting of the eviction ban on 31st May 2021.

Under homelessness legislation, temporary accommodation must be provided for anyone who is assessed by the local authority as being homeless, eligible, and in priority need. Figure 24 shows the number of people placed into self-contained temporary accommodation by HOST from 2015/16 to Q1 2021/22. The number of households in self-contained temporary accommodation has continued to decrease in Q1 2021/22 which is a demonstration of the continued dedication of HOST to rehouse homeless applicants as quickly as possible into suitable and settled accommodation.

Greater Manchester (GM) launched the A Bed Every Night (ABEN) initiative in 2018, which means all local authorities within GM must provide emergency accommodation for anyone identified as rough sleeping, regardless of priority need status. Trafford Council began monitoring the number of placements made under ABEN in 2019. Figure 25 shows the number of placements made under the ABEN initiative from 2019/20 by Quarter. There has been a decrease in the number of placements made during Q1 2021/22 as the figures also include any placements made under the Council’s Severe Weather Emergency Protocol which was triggered during Q4 2020/21 and ceased in Q1 2021/22.

Due to a lack of alternative emergency options, HOST must sometimes place homeless households into Bed & Breakfast accommodation. The use of B&B is avoided entirely for families with children, and is only used for adult households when no other options are available. Moving people out of B&B placements is a priority for HOST and thus placements are only ever short-term.


Figure 26 shows the number of households placed into B&B style interim accommodation each quarter from 2015/16. There has been a significant increase in the number of households placed into B&B in Q1 2021/22 which is likely the result of the eviction ban being lifted on 31st May 2021 resulting in more emergency placements being required.

The Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 introduced two new legal duties owed to homeless applicants. Therefore, from April 2018, there are three duties which can be owed to homeless applicants depending on their circumstances. These are:

  • Prevention duty – Applicant is at risk of becoming homeless within 56 days
  • Relief duty – Applicant is homeless, eligible for assistance, and has a local connection. The Relief duty lasts for 56 days.
  • Main duty – The Main duty will be triggered where the 56-day Relief duty failed to resolve the applicant’s homelessness and the applicant is homeless, eligible, in priority need, not intentionally homeless, and has a local connection. The Main duty will continue until a suitable offer of settled accommodation is made to the applicant.

Figure 27 shows the number of homeless applicants owed each legal duty in Trafford, by quarter, from 2018/19. The increase in the number of applicants owed the Main duty in the first three quarters of 2020/21 was the result of difficulties in securing settled accommodation due to the Covid-19 pandemic, however as Covid-19 restrictions eased the numbers began decreasing in Q4 2020/21. There has been an increase in number of applicants owed both the Relief and Main duty during Q1 2021/22 which can be linked to the lifting of the eviction ban which has made homelessness prevention more challenging.

Since the introduction of the Prevention Duty in 2018, HOST have prevented 1,218 households from becoming homeless. Figure 28 shows the number of households who were prevented from becoming homeless in Trafford each quarter from 2018/19. The reduction in prevention successes in Q1 2021/22 can be linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent lifting of restrictions previously placed on repossessions and evictions which were imposed to protect tenants during the pandemic.

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