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Hi friends, 

I hope you have survived this summer's latest heat wave. I've been visiting family in Minnesota this weekend, so my aspiration to publish a long-form blog will need to wait until next week's edition.  

Today's Contents:

  • Good Reads: Sensible Investing
  • Book Review: The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
  • Weekly Song: Mount Everest

Good Reads: Sensible Investing

I Beg to Differ. Latest Howard Marks Memo. Here. Great message in this piece: to outperform, you have to do something different than the rest of the market.

Q1 2022 Spending Benchmarks from Ramp. Here. Below is an interesting chart showing the reduction in advertising spending and electronics between Q4 2021 and Q1 2022. I won't post more because the formatting is terrible. The tall yellow bar is lodging. No surprise given it's up from a low base. Professional services is an interesting one that is a good leading indicator for the freelance economy. 

Is Selling Shares in Yourself the Way of the Future? In The New Yorker here. My view: I'm not so sure. This article focuses on the two Liberman brothers, but many people have experimented with this idea from the many Income Share Agreement (ISA) providers to the crypto version Talent Protocol. Maybe the idea is merely early; it's going to take time to develop.

Labor Shortages and the Immigration Shortfall. Here. An explanation of why there is a labor shortage (see chart below): The loss of foreign workers is not the only reason for the high rate of unfilled jobs. Increased retirement and increased bargaining power of workers are likely playing an important role. I have been following closely the newly emerging social labor contract and the increasing unionization at places like Starbucks, 


Book Review: Scout Mindset


The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly, and Others Don’t
By Julia Galef. Here on GoodReads. 

I've been reading several books in parallel this summer, but I've just finished Scout Mindset about how to stop self-deceiving and view the world realistically. As someone immersed in forecasting trends, this was a perfect fit. I hesitated initially for two reasons: One, I believed the book would be a rehash of other cognitive error / super forecasting literature which I have already read. Second, mindset overload. How many mindsets must one attempt to maintain at one time? There is scarcity vs. abundance, grit, ownership, and growth vs. fixed to name a few. 

However, this is an easy read and a nice digest of other great books on a similar subject matter with a few reframes that are worthwhile. I recommend it to you for that purpose. I'll summarize it for you here: 

The reason why Scout Mindset is important: “Life is made up of judgment calls, and the more you can avoid distorting your perception of reality, the better your judgment will be."

Benefits from self-deceptions:

  • "Comfort, self-esteem, and morale are emotional benefits, meaning that the ultimate target of our deception is ourselves."
  • "Persuasion, image, and belonging are social benefits; the target of the deception is other people by way of ourselves."
Several useful mindsets reframe tactics that are as straightforward as described:
  • The Outsider Test: Think of a decision, or dilemma, or fact set as an outsider with no emotional attachment or history; 
  • Don't brush off the other side: This is a point that top negotiators all emphasize: Don’t write off the other side as crazy; and, 
  • Rethinking identities: Our beliefs can become deeply attached identities, which make people unwilling to consider or reassess alternative realities that deviate from their identity.

Weekly Song: Mount Everest

Music video here.

Labrinth is the artist behind the brilliant soundtrack for both seasons of Euphoria (HBO TV Show featuring Zendaya). Interview with him here. I love the irreverence of this song. 

"Mount Everest" by Labrinth
Mount Everest ain't got shit on me
Mount Everest ain't got shit on me
'Cause I’m on top of the world

(Tell 'em)
I burn down my house and build it up again
(Tell 'em)
I burn it down twice just for the fun of it
(Tell 'em)
So much money I don't know what to do with it
(Tell 'em)


Thanks for reading, friends. Please always be in touch.

As always,

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Katelyn Donnelly
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