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This is a good infographic summary of the roller-coaster ride we went through last year. We encourage you to stick with your long-term investment plan and not react emotionally to these numerous events.
For full article refer to: https://ninetyone.com/en/south-africa/how-we-think/insights/how-much-is-enough
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  • Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th US President, while Kamala Harris was sworn in as the first Black, female Vice-President of Indian descent.
  • Economically, the $1.9tn economic stimulus package likely to gather traction
  • Incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighting that there should be more stimulus thereafter.
  • Inflation expectations starting to rise, driven by easy money policy and other unorthodox stimulus measures.
  • European leaders, struggling with a slow vaccination effort and fearful of highly contagious coronavirus variants, moved Thursday to begin re-imposing border restrictions.
  • A UCT study concluded that between 2017 and 2020, the number of individuals in the three upper-income bands (middle class and above) went from 6.1m people to 2.7m people, while the number of ultra-poor individuals (earning below minimum wage) increased by 6.6m people.
  • SA may be forced to revise its tax increase targets as its budget shortfall is set to breach wartime levels for a 2nd consecutive year.
    • The budget deficit will reach 11% of GDP in the fiscal year through March 2022 higher than the government’s estimate of 10.1% published in October’s MTBS.
  • SA CPI declined to 3.1% in Dec. The SARB’s monetary policy committee (MPC) remained cautious at its first meeting of 2021 on Thursday, holding the repo rates steady at a 45-year record low of 3.5%.
     
    The decision, which was again decided on a 3-2 split by the MPC in line with market expectations.


Source: PETER ARMITAGE | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, Anchor

 
  • Johns Hopkins University reported the number of American lives lost to the virus is now greater than the number killed in World War Two.
  • 66m doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in 52 countries, far behind expectations, with low-income countries lagging substantially.
  • SA already has a clearer picture of the Covid-19 variant 501Y.V2 just a month after it was first detected. While it may travel more easily and much faster, it is not more deadly.
    • The US will impose a ban on most non-U.S. citizens entering the country who have recently been in South Africa starting Saturday.

 

Anchor rand view: Rand expected to continue to perform in-line with our PPP model

The rand was trading at R15.30/US$1 on Thursday morning (28 January) and in this note, we start by showing how the rand has performed against the greenback over a one-year period to 28 January 2021, relative to the currencies of a select number of other countries. As per Figure 2, the rand has weakened by just over 4% against the US dollar for the year, which is less than the weakness experienced in the Australian dollar and the British pound. The rand’s performance also compares favourably to the Brazilian real and Turkish lira over a one-year period. Our purchasing power parity (PPP) model suggests that the local unit should, on average, weaken by between 2.5% and 4% each year and, over time, the rand is expected to be close to our upper band. The rand is thus doing what it should. Throughout the one-year period, however, the rand has been volatile, and it set a new record of R19.36/US$1 as its weakest ever level. In the short term, the reputation of the rand as being the world’s most volatile currency is well deserved ...


Source: Anchor
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